Solar Cycle Trends and The Gleissberg Cycle

courtesy: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/

This month's Sky & Telescope magazine mentions an interesting study presented in a press release from the International Astronomical Union's 29th General Assembly held this past summer.



Frederic Clette (Royal Observatory of Belgium) and colleagues analyzed the past 400 years of sunspot records and found that the (previously believed) upward trend in solar activity is really a calibration error. They found instead, that solar activity has been relatively stable since the 1700s.

The IAU's summer press release goes on to say ...

" The Sunspot Number, the longest scientific experiment still ongoing, is a crucial tool used to study the solar dynamo, space weather and climate change. It has now been recalibrated and shows a consistent history of solar activity over the past few centuries. The new record has no significant long-term upward trend in solar activity since 1700, as was previously indicated. This suggests that rising global temperatures since the industrial revolution cannot be attributed to increased solar activity.

The results ... make it difficult to explain the observed changes in the climate that started in the 18th century and extended through the industrial revolution to the 20th century as being significantly influenced by natural solar trends.

The apparent upward trend of solar activity between the 18th century and the late 20th century has now been identified as a major calibration error in the Group Sunspot Number. Now that this error has been corrected, solar activity appears to have remained relatively stable since the 1700s

The newly corrected sunspot numbers now provide a homogeneous record of solar activity dating back some 400 years. Existing climate evolution models will need to be reevaluated given this entirely new picture of the long-term evolution of solar activity. This work will stimulate new studies both in solar physics (solar cycle modelling and predictions) and climatology, and can be used to unlock tens of millennia of solar records encoded in cosmogenic nuclides found in ice cores and tree rings. This could reveal more clearly the role the Sun plays in climate change over much longer timescales. "

courtesy: World Data Center - SILSO

The graph above shows the Group Sunspot Numbers (GSN) measured over the past 400 years following the new calibration. The Maunder Minimum, between 1645 and 1715, when sunspots were rare and winters harsh, is clearly evident.

I found this graph particularly interesting with regards to long-term affects on propagation as it illustrates the upcoming predicted Gleissberg Cycle, the 'cycle within the Cycle' ... a period of several weak 11-year cycles in a row and lasting from 80-90 years ... great news for low-frequency fans but not so good for 6m diehards. 

Maybe we'll get one more humdinger before it arrives!

'29 BK QSO Party - Night #1

Harold - KB0ROB

This past Friday night's wonderful propagation during the ARRL 160m CW Contest, pretty much went into the dumper for Saturday night's 1929 Bruce Kelley QSO Party, sponsored by the Antique Wireless Association.




In spite of the auroral-like conditions, with the K-index reaching level '5', the melodic tones from many of the old (and new) clunkers could be heard pounding out their annual 'CQ AWA' invitations.

Among my 19 contacts (8 on 40m and 11 80m), the highlight of the night was working W2ICE/1 in Maine on both 40 and 80m. In reality, this was Paul, N1BUG, operating Bruce Kelley's original 10 watt TNT, which rose to almost S9 levels on 40m, once the sun had set. The Kelley transmitter is moved to various locations each year, a new AWA tradition.

As well, Larry (NE1S), also in Maine, was worked on 40m with  his 10W TNT.

A new station for my '29 logbook was George (N3GJ), in Pennsylvania. George was managing 8 watts input to his version of a 1929 TNT.

When I first tuned-in, several years ago, to hear what these 1929 signals sounded like, two of the best sounding signals were coming from KBØROB (Harold), shown at the top, and KBØMM (Burt), both in Minnesota. I could hardly believe they were using era-appropriate rigs as their signals sounded as good as many modern rigs. Thankfully nothing has changed, as these two stations continue to hand out 'MN' using their well-built 'MOPA'-style time machines.

Scott, WA9WFA, the BK score-keeper in charge of logs, faded up briefly with his fine-looking Colpitts.

Here is a list of the '29ers worked so far, along with their rig style and DC power inputs.

       40m

       KK7UV     Hartley    10w    MT
       W2ICE/1    TNT    10w     ME
       NE1S    TNT    10w    ME
       VE7BDQ    Colpitts    8w    BC
       K7SF    Hartley    10w    OR
       K4JYS    Hartley    10w    NC
       WB2AWQ    Hartley    10w    NV
       N3GJ    TNT    8w    PA

       80m

       KBØMM    MOPA    8w    MN
       KBØROB    MOPA    9w    MN
       W7LNG    TNT    7w     OR
       K4JYS    Hartley    10w    NC
       W2ICE/1    TNT    10w    ME
       WA9WFA    Colpitts    20w     MN
       KK7UV    Hartley    10w    MT
       W9TFC    Hartley    10w    WI
       N2BE    Hartley    10w     NJ
       KIØDB    MOPA    10w    MN
       WØLGU    MOPA    10w    MN

As you can see, 'Hartley' construction takes a slight edge. Vintage 'handbooks' and magazine articles from the era, have always promoted the TNT as the best 'beginners' rig but in reality, the Hartley is much easier to build and to get working with a good-sounding signal. The TNT requires some finicky tweaking of the grid coil in order to have an equally stable-sounding note.

I'm happy to report that in spite of the very high winds (as usual), my new MOPA's tone remained virtually unmoving ... for the most part! This was its first real workout and after my first QSO on 80m, my frequency began making large jumps and suddenly sounding very unstable, along with fluctuations in power output. My initial thought was that one of the old original mica caps was starting to breakdown.

After disconnecting one lead of each capacitor (one at a time) and temporarily clipping in a modern substitute, I was no further ahead. I had originally isolated the frequency instability to the amplifier stage and there was only one thing left ... the amplifier's grid-leak resistor. It appeared to be slowly failing, by increasing resistance in jumps. The 12K resistor was now measuring ten times that value and quickly rising. A new 12K, temporarily clipped in place, cured the problem but it had cost me over an hour of operating time ... probably the best prop of the night as by the time I got back on the band, signals were weak and auroral-sounding.

Hopefully the bands will have mended themselves by next Saturday night, allowing some of the smaller eastern stations to make it back to the west coast for some memorable '29 'transcons'.

ARRL 160 CW / '29 QSO Party

'29 MOPA

I spent about five hours last night in the ARRL 160 CW contest, working 321 stations in 74 sections. Conditions were excellent, with my 150W sustaining long runs and big pileups. It reminded me very much of the old F2 days on 6m, running huge pileups of JA's. Unfortunately I'll not be able to continue tonight because of the conflict with the '29 QSO Party.






In reality, I may not be in that one either, as right on schedule the winds have picked up once again, with gusts to 83 km/h predicted throughout the day ... I'll be lucky if the power stays on for the QSO Party tonight. As well as doing their best to blow my antennas around and make my already shaky '29 signal sound even worse, these high winds all too often result in long power outages here in the Southern Gulf Islands ... my fingers are crossed, as they are every year at this time.

courtesy: http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather/canada/british-columbia/mayne-island-6

If I'm lucky enough to still have power, this will be the inauguration of my newly-constructed MOPA '29 rig ... a two-tube, Master Oscillator Power Amplifier. This rig will be much more 'wind-proof' than my previous mainstays, a single-tube TNT or the Hull Hartley. Both of these self-excited oscillators sound overly 'melodic' when directly coupled to an antenna swinging, or more often, blowing like crazy, in the wind.

If you ever wondered what the ham bands may have sounded like back in 1929, have a listen this Saturday as well as next Saturday night. You will hear some amazingly good signals being generated by these '29 state-of-the-art transmitters as well as some pretty awful sounding ones. It was the pretty awful-sounding ones that led to the crackdown for amateur radio in 1929 as hams were forced to clean up their act or suffer the consequences.

Activity will gather around 3550-3580 kHz and 7100-7125 kHz ... the second weekend will see some meet on the very low end of 160m for an hour, probably around 0400z. I hope some of you will be joining the fun as well, with your newly-constructed 'old' rig!

CLE 200 Results

The CLE 200 event this past weekend once again delivered mediocre propagation on all three evenings. In spite of Sunday night's G1-class geomagnetic storm and high K values, Sunday's overnight period proved to be the best of the weekend's generally 'below average' conditions ... this is the time of the year that LF propagation is usually at its best. Thankfully, there are still several months ahead that could offer some really great mid-winter prop.

The following NDBs were logged using the Perseus SDR along with my LF inverted L, resonated at 300kHz:

28 09:00 335 CC Concord, CA, USA
28 09:00 335 CVP Helena, MT, USA
28 08:00 335 YUT Repulse Bay, NU, CAN
28 06:00 335 YLD Chapleau, ON, CAN
28 09:00 336 LF La Salle, MB, CAN
28 13:00 337 FF Fergus Falls, MN, USA
28 09:00 337 7D Hudson Bay, SK, CAN
28 12:00 338 CMQ Campbell Lake, ALS
28 09:00 338 ZU Whitecourt, AB, CAN
28 12:00 338 RYN Tucson, AZ, USA
30 08:00 338 SHL Sheldon, IA, USA
28 07:00 338 TU Tulsa, OK, USA
28 12:00 338 YPX Puvirnituq, QC, CAN
28 12:00 338 K Port Angeles, WA, USA
28 10:00 339 6X York Landing, MB, CAN
28 10:00 339 MKR Glasgow, MT, USA
29 06:00 340 YY Mont Joli, QC, CAN
28 13:00 341 ELF Cold Bay, ALS
28 10:00 341 OIN Oberlin, KS, USA
29 06:00 341 YYU Kapuskasing, ON, CAN
28 09:00 341 DB Burwash, YT, CAN
28 09:00 342 PFT Pinecreek, MN, USA
28 09:00 343 YZH Slave Lake, AB, CAN
28 09:00 344 YOP Rainbow Lake, AB, CAN
28 09:00 344 XX Abbotsford, BC, CAN
28 09:00 344 FCH Fresno, CA, USA
28 09:00 344 BKU Baker, MT, USA
28 09:00 344 POY Powell, WY, USA
30 08:00 345 GF Grand Forks, ND, USA
30 08:00 346 OLT Soldotna, ALS
28 09:00 346 YXL Sioux Lookout, ON, CAN
28 15:00 347 TNC Tin City, ALS
28 13:30 347 DJN Delta Junction, ALS
28 06:00 347 LEN Leeny, ID, USA
28 15:00 347 SBX Shelby, MT, USA
30 08:00 347 YK Yankton, SD, USA
28 09:00 347 PA Prince Albert, SK, CAN
30 08:00 348 MC Mason City, IA, USA
28 07:00 348 MNC Shelton, WA, USA

More Low Noise Vertical (LNV) Construction

New LNV At WG2XKA

The low-noise vertical discussed here previously, has recently been implemented by at least three of the 630m experimental stations. John, WG2XKA / WA3ETD, along with Ken, WG2XXM / K5DNL and John, WG2XIQ / KB5NJD, have all constructed versions of this receiving antenna after reading about the details here.






John's antenna, pictured above, is described in more detail here, along with some nice pictures of his matching transformer.

All stations report good results with the antenna so it may be something you might want to consider if your present receiving antenna is a noise-collector.

For those interested in getting started on 630m, John (WG2XIQ), has a ton of inspiring information available on his website here as does John (WG2XKA) on his site here.