Solar Cycle 25's Fast Progress

 

 

 

Blog readers may remember my previous blog discussing a more optimistic prognosis for the just-starting solar Cycle 25. It described the then recently-published scientific paper whose conclusion was rather startling:

 

 

 "... we deduce that Sunspot Cycle 25 could have a magnitude that rivals the top few since records began."

The scientific paper described the exact opposite of any and all predictions that I have read or have seen referenced, and at the time of publication, was surely a bold and risky claim for the paper's authors. (1)

An over-simplification of the methodologies used to develop their prediction describes the study of the complex relationship involving the Sun's 22-year (Hale) magnetic cycle, the end points of adjoining cycles called 'terminations' and sunspot production, to predict the eventual strength of the new cycle.

The end of the cycle or ‘terminator’ event plays a significant role in the new cycle’s progress, as the shorter the separation between adjoining terminators, the stronger the next cycle will be. The possibilities of Cycle 25 being a truly strong one depends upon (according to the paper) a terminator event occuring sometime before the end of 2020.

Although there has been no official announcement as of yet, it appears that the termination may be presently occuring. Again following the paper, the termination event will produce a sudden and marked upturn in the growth of solar activity and will in fact, switch on suddenly within one solar rotation. As startling as this sounds, it appears to be exactly what is happening on the Sun right now.

 

courtesy: nasa.gov

Just one week ago, the Sun’s solar flux stood at ~79 sfu (Solar Flux Units) but has climbed rapidly to 110. With several active sunspot regions on the earth-facing side of the Sun and several actively flaring groups about to rotate into view on the backside, it seems as if this sudden growth may be sustainable.

What is particularly encouraging is the activity level of the earth-side spots as well as the ones coming around, with several C and B-class flares continuing to push the flux higher. 

Although it will likely slow and subside, a key indicator of future strength will be the time that it takes to recover and climb again. 

Another interesting gauge of a new cycle’s possible future strength is the number of months needed to reach an average monthly SFI of ‘90’. Strong cycles tend to climb early and rapidly, in order to reach their lofty heights. 

The strongest cycle on record was Cycle 19, the grandaddy of them all. 

courtesy: http://www.solen.info/solar/

 

Compared to anything before or after, it was a magnificent monster of a cycle for ham radio. Cycle 19 reached the magic SFI 90 value in only 18 months ... Cycle 25 has reached this same point in just 12 months! If this is indeed an accurate marker for cycle strength, and there is no reason to believe otherwise, then maybe we should all hold onto our hats.

We’ve been told for several years by those who know these things, that Cycle 25 would likely be a repeat of the poorly-performing Cycle 24, or even weaker. I think one thing  that can now be reasonably surmised is that this isn't another Cycle 24! We should know shortly, if Cycle 25 is the real thing or not, once the termination event has been confirmed.

In the meantime, enjoy the wide open strong signal opportunities now playing on 10m ... the band is back once again and in fine form ... way earlier than anyone ever expected!

 

 (1) Scott W. McIntosh (1), Sandra C. Chapman (2), Robert J. Leamon (3,4), Ricky Egeland (1), and Nicholas W. Watkins (2,5,6)

1 National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.
2 Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
3 University of Maryland, Department of Astronomy, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
4 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 672, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.
5 Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics and Political Science, London WC2A 2AZ, UK 
6 School of Engineering and Innovation, STEM Faculty, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK

New Hope For Cycle 25!

Unlike most forecasts for solar Cycle 25, a recently released paper from five solar scientists (1) has given many 6m diehards new reasons to hope!

After countless dire predictions for the upcoming cycle indicating similar or even poorer activity levels than the disappointing Cycle 24, the new paper suggests just the opposite!


In fact, the group of scientists predict that "Cycle 25 will probably be among the strongest solar cycles ever observed, and that it will almost certainly be stronger than present SC24 (116 spots) and most likely stronger than the previous cycle 23 (180 spots)." The possibility of a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) reaching as high as 305 is in the prediction!

Solar Cycle 19 was a monster, reaching a SSN level of 285 ... to imagine the possibility of something even stronger is truly exciting. The just-ending Cycle 24 was one of the weakest on record, reaching an SSN of just 116.

Will Cycle 25 replace Cycle 19 as #1? Image source with my addition in RED.

During Cycle 24, maximum usable frequencies (MUF) for F2 propagation often struggled just to reach 28MHz, and except for the peak year, the worldwide propagation conditions that amateurs had come to expect were often absent.

Should these new optimistic predictions come to pass, 6m operators can look forward to some truly, never-before-seen, fall and winter propagation ... for at least three or more winters.

With SSN values reaching the high two-hundreds or beyond, west coast operators can expect to see the 6m band often open before sunrise, most likely favoring Europe via the polar path or towards Africa via the trans-Atlantic path. Unlike 20m, there will be little to no ‘polar flutter’ and since signals propagating near the F2 MUF suffer very little path loss, they will probably be very strong.

Later in the day, propagation will shift south towards Central and South America before moving to the west. Depending on the time of year, the propagation will favor Asia, with signals from Japan, China and other far-eastern exotica in the early fall through the New Year. As well, the band will often stay open for some time after local sunset. Late winter and spring will see the western path favour signals from down under, and stretch out to the southern far east regions towards the Indian Ocean. These were the propagation patterns noted from here during Cycles 21-23, when SSNs reached 233, 214 and 180 respectively.

With much gratitude to Mark (VA7MM) for converting my old analog tapes to mp3, here is a recording I made on the morning of November 7, 1979, at the height of Cycle 21. It will give you a taste of what could be in store. On that Wednesday morning, the band opened around 0800 and continued through to sunset, closing with a three-hour opening to the Pacific and Japan. Like many other 6m operators, I had taken the day off work with a case of the 'F2 flu' that was very prevalent that winter! The recording begins with a short exchange between VE1ASJ and VE1AVX, while trying to work a very ‘rare’ (for them) KL7 ...

F2 from Cycle 21

The graph of Cycle 21 shows when the recording was made. Although not known at the time, it was very close to the peak of the cycle.

courtesy: http://www.solen.info/solar/

courtesy: http://www.solen.info/solar/

A record-busting Cycle 25 will be like these previous cycles only on steroids! With such a cycle, 10m will follow a similar pattern but will likely be open 24/7 as I recall listening to VKs and ZLs on 10m AM well after midnight during the downward climb of Cycle 19 ... and this was on a very '10m-deaf' Hallicrafters S-38 and a short wire out the attic window!

For those wanting to read the fascinating paper (Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude), you can find a pdf here. As well, you can read the ARRL’s own announcement of this exciting possibility here.

One certainty is, that if FT8 is still around by then, it and your soundcard will fold up quickly once the band opens with wall-to-wall S9++ signals. It may be useful during the first early minutes or during marginal openings, but knowing the signal levels that 6m F2 can produce, it will be like trying to use FT8 with dozens of new neighbors operating on your own block ... and you can easily guess how well that might work! As we’ve come to understand, FT8 is a wonderful weak-signal mode, but throw just one bone-crushing signal into the waterfall and it’s game-over ... on F2, there will be dozens of these!

Such stellar conditions on 6m are ideally suited to CW or SSB and I think there will be a fast exodus from FT8 back to the traditional modes very early ... those that aren’t prepared for this, relying only on FT8, will most likely be in for a rude awakening. If you’re a 6m “no-coder”, now’s the time to hunker-down and learn CW ... by the time Cycle 25 becomes productive, you won’t be left out of the many CW DX opportunities that will surely be available on this much quicker QSO mode.


We will no doubt be reading more about this as Cycle 25 begins to grow. As in almost all stronger than normal cycles, growth from the start to the peak is much shorter than normal so I’ll be watching for a fast rise in sunspot numbers once we are really underway.

Hindcast modelling (backtesting) of the data derived from previous cycles going back to the 1700s using the paper’s prediction methodology, shows an accurate alignment with what actually occurred. The red dots in the graph above indicate the model’s predicted peak superimposed on the actual peak. In some cases, the peaks were even higher than the modelling suggested.

The predictions identify the so-called “termination” events, landmarks marking the start and end of sunspot and magnetic activity cycles, extracting a relationship between the temporal spacing of terminators and the magnitude of sunspot cycles. The success of these predictions will depend upon an upcoming terminator event before the end of 2020. Should it occur on time, the predictions will be given a much greater chance of coming to fruition ... "with a terminator event in 2020, we deduce that sunspot cycle 25 will have a magnitude that rivals the top few since records began. This outcome would be in stark contrast to the community consensus estimate of sunspot cycle 25 magnitude."

More interesting discussions of the paper can be found here and here.

This week's high-latitude Cycle 25 sunspots are a great sign. When the terminator event occurs, solar activity will ramp-up very quickly, within one 27 day solar rotation. Let's hope we're getting close.


As noted in the paper, "Very early indications of the spot pattern are appearing at higher than average latitudes. Historically, high latitude spot emergence has been associated with the development of large amplitude sunspot cycles — only time will tell."

Hopefully we’ll all need to hold on to our hats ... it might just be the ride of our lives!



(1) Scott W. McIntosh (1), Sandra C. Chapman (2), Robert J. Leamon (3,4), Ricky Egeland (1), and Nicholas W. Watkins (2,5,6)

1 National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.
2 Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
3 University of Maryland, Department of Astronomy, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
4 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 672, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.
5 Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics and Political Science, London WC2A 2AZ, UK 
6 School of Engineering and Innovation, STEM Faculty, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK

An Interesting FT8 Afternoon

Lest my loyal blog-followers think I’ve taken a leap to the digital-darkside, rest assured this is not the case!

The only time that I (somewhat grudgingly) use FT8 is during the summer Es season, since most of the DX seems to have migrated to that mode. On Monday afternoon, during a moment of weakness driven by curiosity, I moved my receiver from 630m JT9 to 40m FT8 ... what might I see at around noon, via this popular weak signal digital QSO mode? To say that the results were surprising is an understatement!

40m at noon

The above screen capture shows the signals decoded between 12 and 1PM local time! Although it was surprising to see all of the east coast signals, it was shocking to see all of the signals (a dozen or more) coming from Japan and South Korea! All of them were working Europeans to their west, none of which were decoding here.

With an all-daylight path between VE7 and Asia, could these signals be coming via the long-path? If so, I would expect to see at least a few signals from other countries along the great circle path to Asia but none were forthcoming. Perhaps it’s a case of there being a sufficiently weak D-layer to allow signals to propagate on the direct path via the F-layer, in spite of the all-daylight path. What do you think?

I then moved the receiver down to 80m, and monitored there for the next two hours.

80m at 1500 local

The 80m screen capture above was made at 3PM local time! Once again, I was surprised to see so many signals coming from the east, in broad daylight! Is this further evidence of a weak D-layer or just a demonstration of the capabilities of FT8?

For both 80 and 40m, the antenna used was my 80m end-fed half-wave configured as an inverted-L ... 70’ straight up and 60’ horizontal. The feedpoint is one-foot above the ground and located beside the ocean, looking towards the east.

I then finished off the afternoon with a look on topband, using my 160m half-sloper. The screen capture of 160m was made at 5PM local time, fully two hours before my local sunset!

160m at 1700 local

Like the previous two bands, 160m was showing signals in broad daylight, from the east coast! Low D-layer absorption? ... salt water horizon gain? ... excellent antennas? ... or is this just the sensitivity of FT8 revealing 'normal propagation' that we can't hear on CW? I suspect that it's a complex combination of all of these factors and maybe others.

In reality, the weak-signal ‘digging power’ of FT8 is not too much greater than the threshold for audible CW ... hearing about 1 S-unit (~6-7db) deeper. Maybe that’s all it takes to peel-back, like an onion skin, another layer of hidden signals.

There are other weak-signal digital QSO modes much more sensitive than FT8. Both JT9 and JT65 can each hear more than an S-unit deeper than FT8 but at the expense of taking longer to do it ... there’s just no free-ride. I believe that the shorter (~15 second) sequencing of FT8 is the main reason for its overwhelming popularity, in spite of its lower sensitivity.

I’ll run this test again soon to see if Monday’s daytime prop was unusual or if it was typical of what to expect with weak-signal digital modes on the lower bands during the daylight hours ... either way, it was indeed, an interesting FT8 afternoon!

A Long Listen On 1240 kHz

Ionosphere:  source

One of the Broadcast Band’s (BCB) six ‘graveyard’ frequencies is 1240 kHz.




These frequencies (1230, 1240, 1340, 1400, 1450 and 1490 kHz) are assigned to smaller stations running non-directional antennas and up to 1000 watts of power. In North America, there are typically about 150 stations assigned to each frequency.

The origin of this spooky name is often a source of debate. Some suggest that it comes from the cacophony of strange howls and sounds that can be heard on these frequencies at night, as multiple fading signals fight it out to be heard, while others relate it to the similarity of the jam-packed headstones in a typical graveyard. Whatever the true reason, it's a fascinating part of the BCB to explore.

Most BCB DXers enjoy the challenge of tackling the graveyard frequencies as they're often so busy. New stations will fade in for a brief period only to be replaced by a totally different one a few moments later ... and then a different one soon after. It gets even better if the fade-ups coincide with a local ad or a ‘top-of-hour’ ID, putting a new catch in the log!

Several days ago I reactivated my 10’ x 20’ loop and Wellbrook ALA100N preamp, that I use for NDB and BCB DXing, by adding a new buried coax line from the shack.

I had previously re-appropriated the loop’s coax for a nearby HF wire antenna and had been without the loop all winter.


After BCB DXer Mike Cherry (VE7SKA) on Salt Spring Island, the next island to the west of me, described some of the European action that he had experienced last winter, I am determined to not miss out during the next winter's BCB DX season!

10' x 20' Loop & Wellbrook ALA100N Preamp

Once getting the loop powered-up in mid-afternoon, I decided to give it a test by making a ‘deep-search’ on 1240 kHz.

At 1500 hours local time, I wasn’t hearing any audio on 1240 but a weak carrier could be detected audibly. Using my Perseus SDR’s waterfall in its narrowest possible window, produces an extremely narrow passband, effectively increasing the sensitivity by a huge factor. This allows the waterfall to display weak signals that are presently being propagated to my location but far too weak to be heard by ear. I’m estimating that in this narrow bandwidth, it can dig about 30 dB or more into the noise, but there is a price to be paid for this extra gain .... time!

If you're used to watching your receiver’s waterfall scroll along quickly, this mode is just the opposite. It moves in very slow increments, allowing the weaker signals to build up enough to be visible before taking the next deep look. The screen capture shown below is a result of a three-hour listening period, from 1500-1800 hours local time. The entire waterfall is 25 Hz wide, with each tick representing 1Hz.

3-Hour Daylight Deep Search

Although no signals were clearly audible during this period, my deep-search revealed the carriers of ~28 different stations being received here in south-west British Columbia ... in the middle of a summer afternoon! It’s interesting to note that few of these signals are 100% stable and several can be seen really struggling to maintain their exact assigned frequency. In this highly narrow bandwidth view, even the worst drift amounts to no more than a Hertz, well within the required tolerance of +/- 20Hz.

Using the always-reliable MWLIST, the locations of the most likely candidates for these 28 signals are plotted below. These are the 28 nearest stations and with my loop pointing east, a definite east / south-east flavour is evident.

At mid afternoon, one might expect to see only groundwave-propagated signals on the broadcast band. Midday groundwave on the broadcast band can easily travel a few hundred kilometers, gradually growing weaker over the longer paths. Perhaps all of these signals are arriving via this mode as they are at least 20-30dB into the noise. I initially thought that some of the further-out signals were being reflected from a strong daytime D-layer, although most of the energy would be absorbed. Further reading shows detectable groundwave up to 1200km is possible which coincides nicely with the distances observed. Most likely what I'm seeing is a combination of extended groundwave and D-layer refraction on the furthest signals.

The second screen capture shows the same frequency for another three hours, starting about an hour before local sunset. Some of the weaker signals seen earlier now begin to grow in strength as the D-layer absorption starts to decay and reveal the higher E-layer. By the end of the third hour, an additional 41 stations have appeared for a total of 69 carriers centered on 1240 KHz. (note that my Perseus calibration is off by a few Hz)

3-Hour Sunset Deep Search

The next 41 closest stations are now plotted below in yellow, showing the most likely source of these signals. The distances illustrated are in-line with single and double-hop E-layer or possibly lower F-layer refraction.

This view shows the directional pattern of the front of the loop while pointing east, with its very broad circular lobe. In this direction, the narrow null is only seen along the coast.

It will be interesting to do a mid-winter follow-up on 1240 and compare the present summer propagation to the much better winter conditions. I expect that at some point, propagation via the higher F-layer will be present and extend skip distances out to the east coast or to South America.

In the meantime, things are almost ready for some pre-sunrise looks to the west and some overnight top-of-hour recordings ... as soon as I re-calibrate Perseus!

6m ... Where'd The Magic Go?

This summer's 6m sporadic-E (Es) DX season is now well past the half-way mark and things have been different ... a lot different. For me, the past 40 plus summers of activity on the magic band have always been interesting, if not down right exciting ... particularly when the band opens to Europe from the west coast.



These usually very short-lived paths have been my main interest for the past several years and the bread and butter mode is normally a fast CW exchange, usually taking less than 20 seconds before signals would vanish, as the always quirky west coast path to Europe would jump to another region. But this has all changed dramatically.

As well, it seems that this summer, the normal SSB and CW modes have been largely abandoned by a huge percentage of the crowd, in favor of FT8, the weak-signal digital QSO mode originally developed with 6m in mind.

I have seen many strong openings involving loud FT8 signals from various parts of North America but when tuning down to the CW/SSB section of the band, found nothing but ghostly silence! Gone are the familiar voices of friends met every summer for decades or the recognition of an old friend's fist on CW ... for me personally, most of the magic was missing this summer. I wonder if this is all part of the natural evolution of amateur radio or does the FT8 revolution signal the long term fate for many of the older conventional modes?

There appears to be a lot of new activity brought to the band by this mode, and many are experiencing the magic band for the first time. I have heard at least two dozen or more VE7 calls on 6m this summer that I have never heard before and this is a very positive thing! From what I can tell, many of the new stations on the band may have makeshift or simple antennas, such as verticals or dipoles and not something larger and are just getting their feet wet on the band.

FT8 allows for two-way weak signal work (a few db below audible limits) that the traditional modes would not support, and simpler stations, without big antennas, can now join the fun. I often see many of the newer stations calling CQ but not hearing their numerous replies, which leads me to think that their receive-capability does not yet match their transmit-erp ... perhaps they just have a lot of local noise or are running more power than they can properly deal with, something they should think about. Often the new FT8 stations will continually CQ, sometimes as long as 90 minutes at a time and create a lot of unnecessary and waterfall obliterating QRM on the band for those that do have good antennas and can hear what they do not. I'll do another blog later regarding FT8 on 6m, and what I have observed this summer.

Here on the west coast, up until last summer, it was fairly normal to have a few short-lived Es openings to Europe. You had to always be on your toes to catch these as they would vanish as suddenly as they appeared. The best of these was back in June of 2012 when a mid-morning opening produced 31 CW contacts in DL, F, SP, CT, ON, GM, IT, LZ, EI, G, S5, I and EA8. Nine new countries were put in the log that morning as the Es clouds danced around, shifting the propagation from one country to another, every other minute. This was the magic band at its best!

Like last summer, this year has produced almost zero trans-Atlantic propagation from VE7 land, other than contacts with CT1 and EA8, both on FT8. Perhaps some external factors are changing the band enough that this path will vanish permanently ... only time will tell. 

Dave, K7RWT, recently pondered if it may have something to do with the north magnetic pole migration over the past several years as it moves to the north-northwest at ~60km per year.

Track the pole's movement here.

Most mornings, the Europeans are into the east coast early, often times making into the central states and occasionally into the southwestern states:

July 18th courtesy: http://www.on4kst.org/chat/index.php

Later in the afternoon, it has not been unusual to see widespread JA to North America action, usually going straight overhead and as far back as the New England states and down to Florida!

July 20th courtesy: http://www.on4kst.org/chat/index.php

There have been several openings between here and JA, sometimes lasting for several hours. So far I've worked about 200 JAs this summer and judging by the flood of daily QSLs arriving from Japan, many are newcomers to the band (the FT8 effect?), often indicating that I was their 'first VE' contact on 6m.

Unlike the west coast to Europe openings, the JA-NA path appears to be growing, this summer particularly ... perhaps it's just those extra few db provided by FT8 that is responsible.

One particularly interesting 'opening' from here happened in the wee hours, starting just after 2300 local time and ending just after 0200, as all west coast operators were sawing logs. A morning check of my FT8 decodes indicated many strong signals from Japan, Taiwan, China, Korea and Hong Kong. I'm sorry that I missed out as the VR2 would have been a new country for me.

Overnight decodes July 8-9

 The non-JA stations heard were:

BM6GJL PL02
HL1BRU PM37
HL2IFR PM37
BG4QNE PM01
VR2VAZ OL72
BV2FB PL05
BV6CC PL03 
BV1EK PL05
BM3GFU PL04

Thanks to Paul, K7CW, for doggedly sorting through my all-night decode file which may be viewed in full here.

With just a couple of weeks left in the normal Es season, it will be interesting to see if FT8's extra few db will extend it longer than usual!

Will The Sun Get Too Quiet For Topband DX?

Those of us that like to hunt European DX on 160m from the west coast know that the best time for this is during the 'solar low' years, those quiet periods between the end of one solar cycle and the beginning of the next.







From the west coast, openings to Europe on 160m are not something that happens with much regularity and, unlike the more frequent paths to Europe enjoyed from the east coast, are almost exclusively limited to this quieter part of the solar cycle. The weakening of the Sun's magnetic field at these times allows for less prop-killing D and E-layer signal absorption, particularly through the northern auroral zone path required from the west coast.

In his October, 2016, posting to the Topband reflector, propagation guru Carl Luetzelschwab, (K9LA), suggested that the coming years of solar lows may actually be too low and that because of the likely unprecedented low levels not seen in our lifetimes, the planet could receive higher cosmic-ray bombardment than normally associated with these periods.

"Since galactic cosmic rays are mostly *very energetic* protons, they can get down to low atmospheric altitudes, causing collisional ionization in the D region (and lower E region). A cursory estimate using cosmic ray ionization rates confirms more ionization in the lower atmosphere. 160m is not very tolerant of more absorption, so we may see an adverse effect of the weakened solar magnetic field."

K9LA's Topband comments  seems to have its roots in his May, 2015 article, "What's Going On With-160 Meters?", where he compares the solar minimum period between Cycles 22 and 23 to the minimum years between Cycles 23 and 24. Carl noted that the best 160m propagation period that he had seen in his lifetime was during the years between Cycle 22 and 23 and pondered why, during the even deeper prolonged low between Cycles 23 and 24, was it not producing the same levels of great propagation observed 11 years earlier. One possibility he puts forward was that ...
 
" ... it involves galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). At solar maximum, the Sun is more active, causing more geomagnetic field activity that is believed to be detrimental to 160-Meter propagation. Coupled with the Sun being more active is the fact that the Sun's magnetic field is stronger, which shields the Earth from galactic cosmic rays. Going the other way, when we're at solar minimum, the Sun's magnetic field is weakest, letting in more cosmic rays."

His graph shows the yearly trend of only the  low Ap index days (geomagnetically quiet) versus smoothed sunspot numbers for several recent cycles. The blue line plots the trend of low Ap index values with the black line showing the smoothed values; the red line indicates the smoothed sunspot number (solar activity levels).

source: http://k9la.us/May15_What_s_Going_On_with_160-Meters.pdf

Carl's earlier observations indicating that the best 160m propagation he had ever observed was during the low period between Cycle 22 and 23 and not during the much quieter low period between Cycle 23 and 24 are very much different than my own ... perhaps because of our different locations. 

From the west coast, the most challenging topband path is over the pole to Europe. This only occurs during 'best propagation' periods as this path will only open during prolonged periods of very low geomagnetic activity. Unlike Carl's path to Europe, west coast signals need to traverse the signal-killing auroral zone. 

During the first low period, I did experience several openings to Europe but nothing compared to what they were during the second low period, between Cycles 23 and 24, the one Carl did not experience propagation as good as the previous low. For several winters in a row, during the 23-24 low, I often found night after night of amazing propagation to Europe, the quality of which I had never heard before. Interestingly, on almost all of these nights, there were no other signals on the band but Europeans and nearby Washington or Oregon state W7s ... no signals at all from the rest of North America. At times it mimicked the sound of 20m CW to Europe, with signals often reaching S9 on my FT-1000 S-meter. I even worked one SM station on CW while running just 10W output!

With this long intense low, cosmic ray bombardment should have been at an all time high ... maybe it was, but it didn't seem to be bothering the west coast path to Europe, via the seemingly dormant auroral zone. 

I was prompted to address this topic after reading a recent report on the GeoSpace website, siting a new study  led by Nathan Schwadron, professor of physics at the University of New Hampshire’s Space Science Center. In the study, recently published in the journal Space Weather, a publication of the American Geophysical Union, the researchers found that large fluxes in Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) are rising faster and are on a path to exceed any other recorded time in the space age.

The author's study predicted a 20% increase in radiation bombardment but their newest research shows current conditions exceed their predictions by about 10 percent, showing the radiation environment is worsening even more than expected.

With cosmic ray levels now predicted to increase by a whopping 30%, Carl and the rest of us may soon get some clarity on his original postulation that "maybe a solar minimum can be too deep for 160 meters."

With the next few cycles expected to be even poorer than the present one, the large increase in radiation levels from space may have profound impacts on more than just propagation ... satellites and, with a new appetite to return human activity to the moon, astronauts could be exposed to much higher radiation levels than ever before.

The next few years of (ultra?) solar-quiet should be very interesting!

Cycle 24 - Still Kicking

This week's Sun

Well, just when the sun was showing some nice signs of growing quiet for the upcoming winter, Cycle 24 has once again demonstrated that it's not going down without a fight.



For the past few weeks of quiet solar conditions, low band propagation, in spite of the time of year, had been performing well, with both 40 and 80m having a nice level of evening CW activity stretching out to the central states and to the east coast.

That all changed this week when the Sun let loose with a series of powerful flares, one of which was the strongest in a decade ... all very surprising for a Sun that has already shown us many days of spotless conditions as it winds its way to the bottom of the cycle.

With Solar Cycle 24 being one of the weakest on record, it has shown levels of activity on the way down that could rival the past few much stronger cycles in their waning years. Another oddity for this cycle was its 'double-peak', not unusual per se except that 24's second peak was the stronger of the two.

courtesy: http://www.solen.info/solar/

With the recent flaring and accompanying radio blackouts, HF propagation has been poor and with auroral conditions forecast for the arriving CMEs, it may take some time to recover, especially on LF and MF. But it may not be all bad.

Disturbances like this will normally affect E-W, polar and Trans-Atlantic paths more than N-S paths. Oftentimes, paths to South America on MF and HF will be enhanced as will the Trans-Pacific path, so all is not lost.

There are many websites devoted to providing a 'heads-up' to what might be coming geomagnetically-speaking. Two of my favorites are here and here.

The more northerly you are, the more disruption you will notice and for some reason, VE7 land seems particularly in-tune with solar perturbations as the slightest hiccup on the Sun seems to immediately wreak havoc here. Even amateurs a hundred miles to the south or southeast, enjoy markedly less disruption than us out here on Canada's western edge ... for some reason, we seem more tied-in to the auroral zone activity than we should, given our westerly location. Perhaps the zone dips lower in this region than it does further east but it is something I have observed on LF and MF for decades now.

It seems as though the first hit has just arrived so hold on to your hats:

Space Weather News for Sept. 7, 2017
http://spaceweather.com
https://www.facebook.com/spaceweatherdotcom

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING: A CME has just hit Earth's magnetic field
(Sept. 7th at ~2300 UT). This is the debris from Wednesday's
decade-class X9 solar flare. It arrived earlier than expected,
confirming that the solar storm cloud is both fast and potent. The
CME appears to contain strong south-pointing magnetic fields that
typically do a good job of igniting geomagnetic storms. High-latitude
sky watchers should be alert for auroras in bright moonlight. Visit
Spaceweather.com for updates and more information about this developing event.

Hopefully the sun will outgrow its latest temper tantrum and get back to normal quickly so that this fall and winter will be one of the best for low band and MF work in the past decade ... with a quiet Sun, these frequencies can perform amazing magic at times.

CLE 219 Results

As originally feared, MF conditions took a nasty beating this weekend during the monthly CLE .

It's really amazing how closely synced to terrible conditions the CLE's have become ... perhaps we need to offset our monthly activity by staging the next one in two weeks to see if we break out of sync with the Sun's regular 27-day rotation of coronal hole streaming.

Friday night was the best, much better than most other regions in North America from what I could tell as the geomagnetic storm had not yet struck ... but most others suffered from severe thunderstorm noise further to the south and east of BC.

Once the geomagnetic storm was underway, the DST quickly tanked and both Saturday and Sunday nights saw a shroud of absorption thrown over the NDB band, at times making me wonder if I even had an antenna connected to the receiver. I haven't seen such poor conditions on MF in several years.

courtesy: http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/

courtesy: http://www.noaa.gov/

Fortunately, the following stations were heard on Friday night, before the storm, using my Perseus SDR and LF / MF inverted-L resonated to ~350 kHz:

27 06:00 350.0 SWU Sweden - Id Falls, ID, USA
27 11:00 350.0 RG Oklahoma City, OK, USA
27 05:00 350.0 NY Enderby, BC, CAN
27 08:00 351.0 YKQ Waskaganish, QC, CAN
27 06:00 353.0 RNT Renton, WA, USA
27 06:00 353.0 PG Portage La Prairie, MB, CAN
27 12:30 353.0 LLD Lanai Island, HWA
27 06:00 353.0 IN Ericsburg, MN, USA
27 11:00 353.0 DI Dickinson, ND, USA
27 11:00 353.0 AL Dixie, WA, USA
27 06:00 356.0 ZXE Saskatoon, SK, CAN
27 10:00 356.0 ZF Yellowknife, NT, CAN
27 11:00 356.0 PND Portland, OR, USA
27 05:00 356.0 ON Penticton, BC, CAN
27 11:00 356.0 MEF Medford, OR, USA
27 10:00 358.0 SIT Sitka, ALS
27 10:00 359.0 YQZ Quesnel, BC, CAN
27 10:00 359.0 YAZ Tofino, BC, CAN
27 10:00 359.0 SDY Sidney, MT, USA
27 06:00 359.0 BO Ustick, ID, USA
27 08:00 362.0 RPX Roundup, MT, USA
27 08:00 362.0 BF Seattle, WA, USA
27 10:00 362.0 6T Foremost, AB, CAN
27 10:00 365.0 MA Mayo, YT, CAN
27 05:00 365.0 DPY Deer Park, WA, USA
27 06:00 365.0 AA Harwood, MN, USA
27 07:00 366.0 YMW Maniwaki, QC, CAN
27 11:00 368.0 ZP Sandspit, BC, CAN
27 10:00 368.0 VX Dafoe, SK, CAN
27 11:00 368.0 SX Skookum - Cranbrook, BC, CAN

CLE 218 Results

courtesy: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

This past weekend's CLE event was, as is so often the case, perfectly timed with the arrival of poor propagation in most parts of the world. This time around, it was particularly bad.

The 'Co-ordinated Listening Event' might more aptly be called the 'Cursed Listening Event' as once again the same large coronal hole (shown above) that has been present for several solar rotations seems to be more disruptive than ever. The subsequent higher than normal solar wind speeds causing widespread auroral conditions and elevated K indices have pretty much made a mess of MF and HF radio for the past several days.

courtesy: http://www.noaa.gov/

NDB-band recordings made with the Perseus SDR for the three-night event turned up very little activity other than a few strange hot-spots. Both 'OIN' in Kansas and 'CC' in California were strong on all three nights! Nothing from eastern Canada was heard and one of Alaska's strongest signals, 'ELF', was barely detected. Only the following few stations were logged:

23 08:00 341.0    ELF  Cold Bay, ALS
22 06:00 338.0    ZU   Whitecourt, AB, CAN
22 06:00 343.0    YZH  Slave Lake, AB, CAN
22 04:00 344.0    YC   Calgary, AB, CAN
22 12:00 338.0    RYN  Tucson, AZ, USA
22 04:00 344.0    XX   Abbotsford, BC, CAN
22 12:00 335.0    CC   Concord, CA, USA
22 10:00 344.0    FCH  Fresno, CA, USA
22 08:00 341.0    OIN  Oberlin, KS, USA
22 04:00 344.0    BKU  Baker, MT, USA
24 08:00 335.0    BK   Brookings, SD, USA
22 04:00 347.0    PA   Prince Albert, SK, CAN
22 08:00 338.0    K    Port Angeles, WA, USA
22 04:00 348.0    MNC  Shelton, WA, USA
22 05:00 341.0    DB   Burwash, YT, CAN

I suspect the this same coronal hole will be with us for several more rotations ... perhaps it's time fool Ol' Sol and stagger our CLE's 28-day cycle so it doesn't continue go sync-up with poor band conditions but somehow I think that Murphy might not be so easily duped!

Another Blast Coming

courtesy: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Speaking of 'everlasting', wimpy Solar Cycle 24 has been showing more energy in its death throws than it ever seemed to show during its peak.








It continues to blast earth with a never-ending series of coronal hole streams leading to periods of high signal absorption (particularly on the lower frequencies) and widespread auroras.

The present rip in the Sun's surface is the same one that caused major disruptions during the last solar rotation. Geomagnetic storming and propagation disruptions are forecast to begin around the 28th, with a proviso ... these ones could be even worse than last time as the wind's polarity at present is favorable to greater coupling with the Earth's magnetosphere, sending the Earth's Bz southward (negative) into auroral producing, prop-killing conditions.

Sometimes, though not normally, these events can produce periods of enhanced low frequency propagation, especially during the hours just before the event's commencement ... the best thing to do is just continue to operate normally and not assume the worst. I've been guilty of this in the past and being caught off guard, have missed some better than usual LF propagation.

 I'll keep my fingers crossed over the next few days and think positive ... Bz-wise!

Novice Rig Round-Up Report

Last week's Novice Rig Round-Up delivered far more enjoyment than I ever imagined!




Operating from the left coast and choosing to limit my output power to 5 watts, I really didn't expect to work more than a half dozen stations or so. The week-long event included two weekends, providing plenty of opportunity for participants to spark-up their novice-class rigs or their favorite pre-80's 'boatanchors' ... and they did!

I had 68 contacts with other 'NRR' stations, working numerous Heathkits, Drakes, Johnsons and homebrewed favorites ... even a Collins KWS-1! Staying true to the 'novice' class spirit, most were using hand keys and a surprising number were even using crystal control.

I decided to enter the fray with my homebrew "Longfeller", shown above, run at 5W to take advantage of the low power multiplier as well as using crystal control.

After struggling to work two stations, I soon decided that if I was going to work much at all, I would need to switch to 'search and pounce' mode and use the VFO. The once ubiquitous Heathkit VF-1, with all of its charming quirks, was pressed into service. Although I've always loved its green hypnotic dial, a week with the VF-1 reminded me of all the things I also hated about it as a teenaged ham back in the mid 60s'. But as it did back then, it served me well and allowed me to park the Longfeller wherever I wanted.

My NRR Setup

So much of the NRR reminded me of my early exciting radio days, high up in my attic bedroom shack. It reminded me of how challenging each contact was back then and of the pride of achievement when a contact was completed using pretty basic gear. It reminded me also, of just how far our equipment has evolved since then and gave me a renewed appreciation for the modern gear I unfortunately often take for granted.

For the low bands (80/40m), the Longfeller was fed into full-sized vertical wire groundplanes made from homebrew ladder line and both fed with the same coaxial feedline.

A counterpoise of eight wire radials were laid on the lawn temporarily with the feedpoint sitting about 20' from the ocean. Being right at the ocean allows me to take advantage of an approximate 6db of "sea gain", effectively turning my 5 watts into 20 watts of radiated power. At times, my signal needed all the help it could get.

It was also exciting to catch the sometimes fleeting transcontinental openings on 15m, as the MUF often struggled to reach 21 MHz each morning. This very much reminded me of past solar cycle peak winters and the morning excitement of watching the MUF slowly climb towards 50MHz, or in some cases, shoot up like a rocket. As Cycle 24 reaches the bottom, the effects of low solar flux values on our higher bands becomes increasingly more evident. I suspect that there will be no 15m transcontinental work in next winter's NRR and who knows how long that might be the case. High MUFs were fun while they lasted ... another thing often taken for granted.

Without question, one of the most interesting parts of the nine day event was following the propagation variances from night to night on 40 and 80m. With a couple of exceptions, low-band propagation was generally pretty good, with one mid-week night being just great. Signals from the east coast to the southern states were strong and with almost no QSB. The Longfeller pushed its 80m signal to Florida, Maryland, New York, Alabama, Louisiana, Ohio and Kentucky. I remember many nights like this when operating 80m back in the early to mid 60's, during the lull between monster Cycle 19 and wimpy Cycle 20. Hopefully we will see more of these really nice transcontinental nights on 80 over the next several years.

For me however, the highlight of the event occurred last Saturday afternoon, while on 40m, fully ninety minutes before our local sunset. I had called WW6D after his 589 CQ only to hear him respond to another NRR local, Mark, CF7MM. He gave Mark's 50 watt DX-60 a '589' and when he finished I called him again ... with not even a whisper of response or even a QRZ. After I called him a third time, he returned to his CQ, leaving no doubt that he wasn't hearing a trace of my signal. Now full-sized 1/4 wave groundplanes mounted beside the ocean are not noted for producing high-angled radiation, which this path would certainly have benefited from, but I would have expected something!

I immediately moved down the band a few kilohertz and sent a short hand-keyed CQ and received an immediate response from WS1K in Plymouth, MA! Jon's signal was a solid and unwavering 559 and he was running only 5 watts as well ... and, he was crystal-controlled! The groundplane had swiftly redeemed itself as this exciting contact went into the log on 40m ... and all in broad daylight! Pictured below is Jon's transcon ether-busting machine ... proof that form does indeed follow function!

WS1K's 40m Transcon 6V6 Ether-Buster

For me, there is only one other operating event that is as enjoyable as I found the NRR to be ... the annual 1929 BK Party, when signals are often just as strong as in the NRR, but a couple of decades raunchier-sounding. Both are great fun and if you loved the NRR you will love the '29 BK.

I'm really looking forward to next year's NRR but will definitely be running more power. I was impressed with the several Drake 2NT's that I heard and luckily enough, have one such rig in my boatanchor basement. It will be a good project to recap and put back on the air, along with the VF-1, which will also be given the once over to encourage it to behave properly when driving the classy Drake.

Please give the NRR some serious thought for next year ... it's not too early to start planning, refurbishing or to seek out and cherish that aging old beauty, presently hiding in someones attic gathering dust. See you in the NRR!